# Recent Protests and COVID-19 Spread

[Listen to or watch the recording](../media/media-2020-06-01-univision/recording.mp4)

**Univision News · June 1, 2020**

Aaron Yelowitz discussed how large public protests could affect COVID-19 transmission, including the possibility of superspreading, the demographics of participants, racial disparities in COVID-19 outcomes, and the difference between outdoor and indoor transmission.

## Participants

- **Unidentified Univision News interviewer:** Interviewer
- **Aaron Yelowitz:** Professor of Economics, University of Kentucky

## Related research

[Charles Courtemanche, Joseph Garuccio, Anh Le, Joshua Pinkston, and Aaron Yelowitz, “Strong Social Distancing Measures in the United States Reduced the COVID-19 Growth Rate,” *Health Affairs* 39(7), 2020, 1237–1246.](https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00608)

## Transcript

> **Transcript note:** This transcript was generated from the recording and may be imperfect. The recording is the authoritative source.

**00:00:00 — Univision News interviewer:** Now there is concern among public-health officials that mass protests over the weekend will bring new outbreaks even sooner than anticipated. Joining me now to talk about this is Aaron Yelowitz. He is an economics professor at the University of Kentucky. Thank you so much for your time, Professor.

**00:00:16 — Aaron Yelowitz:** Thank you for having me. I wish I didn’t have to be here under the circumstances, but thank you.

**00:00:24 — Univision News interviewer:** Professor, you recently analyzed the effects of four different social-distancing measures: sheltering in place, closing restaurants, closing schools, and banning large gatherings. What is your reaction to the mass protests this weekend? What effect will those have on the pandemic moving forward?

**00:00:42 — Aaron Yelowitz:** Last month, my research team published a study in *Health Affairs* on the lockdown measures, and we found that they significantly bent the curve on COVID-19 cases. We also looked at specific policies, as you mentioned, and found that stay-at-home restrictions and dining and entertainment restrictions significantly reduced community spread, while bans on large gatherings did not have much impact.

Our thinking is that, back in March and April, before the stay-at-home orders, bans on large gatherings simply encouraged smaller gatherings. That is, people still got together and spread the virus, just in smaller venues. What our study did not assess—which is critically important in difficult times like these—is how protests, where there is a real chance of superspreading, affect COVID-19. The circumstances surrounding community protests against police violence have a real possibility of producing a spike in infections, although we may not see it immediately.

**00:01:44 — Univision News interviewer:** Professor, what about the demographics of the people at these protests? Many of them are young, and many are minorities—African Americans and Latinos. What can you tell us about those communities in relation to the virus?

**00:01:59 — Aaron Yelowitz:** There have been significant racial disparities in COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and fatalities. One recent study published in *Health Affairs* by researchers at Sutter Health found that African Americans were nearly three times as likely to be hospitalized for COVID-19 as similarly situated white patients.

The protesters were largely people of color and much younger people who may be asymptomatic. Both of those factors potentially mean that spread of the disease will not be detected for a bit longer, because younger people, even if they become infected, may not eventually get tested. However, older individuals with whom they come into contact could eventually get the disease.

**00:02:52 — Univision News interviewer:** What are some of the issues with mass protests that could make an outbreak more likely?

**00:02:57 — Aaron Yelowitz:** There is evidence from very early in the pandemic about the way in which people shout or scream—both of which are important and legitimate things to do during a protest. A study in Seattle found that one superspreader infected more than 50 people in a choir practice, because activities in which microdroplets are spread make transmission much easier.

One difference, perhaps—and hopefully this will matter—is that the protests were outside, and it appears that transmission is lower outside than it would be indoors.

**00:03:42 — Univision News interviewer:** Thank you so much, Aaron Yelowitz, economics professor at the University of Kentucky, for your time today.